The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) just released its annual update to education projections, extending them to 2025-26 for a wide range of Pre-K to college statistics. The NCES projections provide a high-level comparison to WICHE’s more detailed projections of high school graduates, which include state-level for public high school graduates by race/ethnicity and for private high school graduates, and graduates out to the year 2031-32. (This NCES update includes confirmed counts of H.S. graduates through 2012-13 for public and private high school graduates; more recent counts have not been published.)
NCES' updated projections generally confirm the trends from Knocking, including: the period of relatively flat graduates overall through about 2025, continued swift diversification of public high school graduates, and declines of private high school graduates by 2025. NCES' updated projections of private high school graduates, nationally, indicate a recent uptick of private high school graduates, mitigating to some extent the declines previously projected by both NCES and WICHE.
WICHE will continue to analyze new data about U.S. high school graduates as they become available.