Webinars

Reports

Knocking at the College Door provides useful, accurate data to plan for the coming years. These reports highlight various aspects of the data and insights into the implications of the changing demographics facing the nation.

Presentations

 

New Data Show More Positive Trend for Private High School Graduates

In the year since the release of WICHE’s ninth edition of high school graduate projections, which spans school years between 2013-14 and 2031-32, more recent sets of the source data that underlie the projections have been released. The new data confirm WICHE’s overall projections that the U.S. is headed into a period of stagnation in the overall number of high school graduates it produces. But, declines in the future number of high school graduates from private religious and nonsectarian schools no longer appear imminent through at least 2018.

WICHE is not issuing new projections of private high school graduates at this time, but the newly released data are described in a new brief report and have been posted to knocking.wiche.edu/data so that users of the Knocking projections may analyze them alongside the published projections.

WICHE will continue to analyze new data about U.S. high school graduates as they become available. 

New NCES Projections Of Education Statistics, to 2025

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) released its annual update to education projections in September 2017, extending them to 2025-26 for a wide range of Pre-K to college statistics. The NCES projections provide a high-level comparison to WICHE’s more detailed projections of high school graduates, which include state-level for public high school graduates by race/ethnicity and for private high school graduates, and graduates out to the year 2031-32. (This NCES update includes confirmed counts of H.S. graduates through 2012-13 for public and private high school graduates; more recent counts have not been published.)

NCES' updated projections generally confirm the trends from Knocking, including: the period of relatively flat graduates overall through about 2025, continued swift diversification of public high school graduates, and declines of private high school graduates by 2025. NCES' updated projections of private high school graduates, nationally, indicate a recent uptick of private high school graduates, mitigating to some extent the declines previously projected by both NCES and WICHE.

WICHE will continue to analyze new data about U.S. high school graduates as they become available.